🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Made $436K from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation. Market Movement in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the period preceding former President Trump declared on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Platform data shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet these probabilities had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions right before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," commented an industry expert. A small number of other traders also made tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill put forward on Monday aims to prohibit public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to political events. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."